Bitcoin has done it again. Within 6 months from its lowest value of $3,xxx, Bitcoin managed to triple its value and pass the $10,000 mark again – first time since March 2018. The cryptocurrency is now trading between $10,900 and $11,000 on Binance and should be only a matter of time until the price will reach the $11,000 mark. There were a few smart people that were expecting this even in tough times. Most of these are people there were here since its inception or 2012-2013 when the cryptocurrency got a bit of media coverage.
But one thing they’re certain about is that charts never lie. At least that’s what a 4chan member think when he correctly predicted the 2019 evolution so far. May be a guess, may be just his luck – or he’s just a good trader and know the patterns and how to read the price evolution.
The charts never lie, and right now the evolution from December 2017 until now looks a bit like a Cup and handle pattern. This pattern indicates that Bitcoin will probably keep increasing in price for a few days/ weeks and then there will be a small correction on the price. Afterwards, the price will move upward again. With the current evolution and a few other factors, we can say that in 2019 we will see a $15,000 price per Bitcoin again, if not even $20,000.
The Bitcoin FOMO
Did I mention that Bitcoin has increased three times since January this year? Yes. And a lot of other people and companies are mentioning this too. eToro is using this to advertise their services, hedge funds started to buy bitcoin as well as other cryptocurrencies and probably the most important – the bearish sentiment has ended. I’m not saying it couldn’t go down again – in fact, it could easily do so. But right now if Bitcoin would have a flash crash – people would buy more and more as they feel 2019 is another great year for the king of cryptocurrencies.
And this is how FOMO for the masses is created. People already saw a massive growth in the past and they don’t wanna lose this opportunity – again. They want to get it now at $10,000 or even more and sell it at 2x at least. And a lot of articles are helping create the FOMO sentiment. Probably even this article, which basically is not wrote to influence you to buy it, but to understand a few things about Bitcoin and its evolution. We have articles claiming that BTC will be $100k and even articles for BTC to be worth $1 Million. With a price of around $10k, these would convince a lot of people to get it. But is this evolution normal or just as results of the FOMO?
The Bitcoin Price Evolution
Bitcoin reached around $20,000 in 2017, December. But the growth in that period was incredible. In December 2017, more than $11 billion worth of bitcoin were traded daily. Of course, there’s a lot of fake volume there. Exchanges are pumping the numbers up to attract traders. So, the number is clearly not that big. But at least half of it is true.
The massive growth of 2017 was a result of a number of factors :
- New investment opportunity, people got curious
- a lot of ICOs with 100x promised returns – but to participate in those you’d need BTC or ETH
- a lot of positive news about it
These among many others helped Bitcoin reach almost $20k in 2017. But in a short period more and more people started talking about it or reading about it and the demand was higher than the supply, therefore the surge to $20k. Can we expect this thing to happen again?
Yes. The BTC trading volume per day reached $25 billion today. Its not the highest value it ever had, but its a sign that the demand is started to increase. More and more people are hearing about the BTC price again. Don’t believe me? Check the Google trends.The difference this time is that Bitcoin has a high interest over time but cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Ripple or Litecoin does not. This brings us to another questions: When will the alt season start?
The Start of Alt Season
Looking at Google trends, we can notice that the interest for cryptocurrencies is really low right now. Ethereum, Litecoin or Ripple doesn’t really have a lot of searches these days – compared to 2017 era. Most of the people got burned with the ICOs in 2017 or certain shitcoins and would now prefer to buy only Bitcoin and probably hold it for a longer period or sell as soon as they make 20-30%. Anyway, its better than the 0.5% – 2% interest rates from the banks.
Tron got more searches than Ethereum so far, mostly because of the fact that Justin Sun is going out talking about it or doing crazy stuff – like paying $4 million for a dinner with Warren Buffet. This is probably not the greatest sign, as I honestly believe that Ethereum have a better blockchain than Tron. But the thing is, we’re not in the alt season yet and that won’t probably start too soon. Bitcoin’s dominance is around 60% and won’t probably stop until it would be 75% or even more. At the point where people would think “Its too expensive to buy Bitcoin” – a new alt season will begin.
We can also probably see some different alts growing better than Bitcoin over time: Binance coin due to the Binance strong IEOs, Litecoin due to its halving in august and even Cardano when Shelley would be done. But a true alt season where all the cryptocurrencies would grow no matter if the project is strong or not, I don’t think we’ll have one too soon. And this is not a bad thing. People are getting more careful with their investment and they’re more likely to invest their amount for a small portion of a bitcoin than for one million of a no name coin.
And this is probably how its supposed to be. Some cryptocurrencies with strong projects will grow and compete for a place in top 20 and others would be left behind. Basically, a separation from the scam projects from the good promising ones.
While Bitcoin’s evolution looks strong and the graphs shows that it can easily pass $15,000 in 2019 – the other cryptocurrencies are not looking so good. The interest for cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Litecoin or Ripple decreased and would probably continue this way until people would think its too expensive to buy a bitcoin. But until then, let’s sit back and enjoy the ride.
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